GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 573, 19 September 2021

North Korea: New missile tests to challenge the US, Japan and South Korea
Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar

What happened?
On 12 September, North Korea successfully fired a new long-range cruise missile described as "a strategic weapon of great significance". According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the missile hit targets 932 miles away, flying along with different patterns, before falling into the North Korean territorial waters. 

On 15 September, North Korea launched two ballistic missiles from a train to test the new weapons. The missiles flew 497 miles (800km) before striking a target in the sea off North Korea's east coast. Pak Jong Chon, a North Korean marshal and a member of the Presidium of the Politburo of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea, who oversaw the test said: "The railway-borne missile system serves as an efficient counter-strike means capable of dealing a harsh multi-concurrent blow to the threat-posing forces." 

What is the background?
First, North Korea's missile programmes. Though the latest tests would be the first known testing since March 2021, North Korea has been orienting towards qualitatively refining and quantitatively expanding its missile and nuclear capabilities. The missile programs over the past five years have transformed subsequently. During 2016-17, North Korea tested a series of missile nuclear weapons and missiles which led the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to place new sanctions. While during this period, most missile tests were short-range, medium-range, intermediate-range, it also started testing intercontinental ballistic missiles in 2017. After a break in 2018, it resumed missile testing in 2019 - short-range ballistic missiles, intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The latest ones, tested in September 2021 are reported to be long-range cruise missiles.

Second, the arms race in the Korean peninsula. The tit-for-tat missile tests on the Korean peninsula have scaled up tensions in the region. South Korea tested a new submarine-launched ballistic missile the same day North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles, making it one of only seven countries with this technology. The arms race has accelerated under the leadership of Moon Jae-in, including his push for more foreign policy autonomy. Therefore, South Korea plans to develop all other capabilities to deter North Korea and show who the strongest Korea is.

Third, the regional responses. Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga condemned the missile launch as "simply outrageous" and said it was a "threat to the peace and security" of the region. He declared that the testing was a violation of the UN Security Council resolution, expressing his strong protest and condemnation and further added that the Japanese government will continue to monitor the area. In contrast, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Seoul said: "By choosing cruise missiles, North Korea is trying not to provoke the US and China too much." 

Fourth, the extra-regional responses. The United States condemned North Korea's launch, pointing it violated UN Security Council resolutions and posed a threat to Pyongyang's neighbours. The United States claims to remain open to diplomacy and dialogue with North Korea but, on the other hand, holds a tight reign on the sanctions. France's ambassador to the UN, Nicolas de Riviere specified the need for a 'political dialogue, a political solution, but the precondition is compliance' is a requirement with North Korea alongside the UN Security Council resolutions.

What does this mean?
First, the recent activities highlight the continuing instability in the Korean peninsula. North Korea's push towards nuclear and missile tests threatens its neighbours and the international community. Second, the tests underline North Korea's strategy in using missiles and nuclear weapons as a tool and a leverage at the regional and global levels, however, without much success.

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